Details of Economic and Fiscal Projections 213
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1
EI benets include regular EI benets, sickness, maternity, parental, compassionate care, shing and work-sharing
benets, and employment benets and support measures. Remaining EI costs relate mainly to administration and are
part of direct program expenses.
2
Includes the Canada Emergency Response Benet, the Canada Recovery Benet, the Canada Recovery Caregiving
Benet, the Canada Recovery Sickness Benet, and the Canada Worker Lockdown Benet.
3
Includes the Child Disability Benet.
4
Includes the one-time top-up of $2 billion in 2022-23 and 5 per cent guarantee until 2027-28.
5
Includes Home and Community Care and Mental Health and Addictions Services Agreements, and the new Tailored
Bilateral Agreements, but excludes $3 billion for long-term care, $1.7 billion for personal support worker’s wage
increases, and the Territorial Health Investment Fund which are under direct program expenses.
6
Canada-wide early learning and child care transfer payments to provinces and territories exclude funding for Indigen-
ous early learning and child care, which are included in the other transfer payments line.
7
Other scal arrangements include the Quebec Abatement (osetting amounts to reect the reduction in federal tax
collected for the Youth Allowances Recovery and Alternative Payments for Standing Programs); statutory subsidies;
payments under the Canada-Nova Scotia Arrangement on Oshore Revenues; payments for the Transfer of Hibernia
Net Prots Interest and Incidental Net Prots Interest Net Revenues to Newfoundland and Labrador; and potential
Fiscal Stabilization payments.
8
This includes capital amortization expenses.
Table A1.7, above, provides an overview of the projection for program expenses
by major component.
Major Transfers to Persons
Major transfers to persons consist of elderly benets, Employment Insurance (EI)
benets, the Canada Child Benet (CCB), and the COVID-19 income supports for
workers (2022-23 only).
Elderly benets are projected to reach $69.1 billion in 2022-23, up 13.7 per cent.
Over the forecast horizon, elderly benets are forecast to increase by 6.9 per
cent on average, annually. Growth in elderly benets is due to the increasing
population of seniors and projected consumer price ination, to which benets
are fully indexed, as well as the 10 per cent increase to Old Age Security
payments for pensioners 75 and over on an ongoing basis as of July 2022,
announced in Budget 2021.
EI benets are projected to decrease to $22.6 billion in 2022-23, largely
reecting the expiry of temporary measures to facilitate access and a lower
unemployment rate. EI benets are then expected to grow at an average annual
rate of 6.2 per cent throughout 2023-24 and 2024-25, due to the projected
deterioration in labour market conditions, before returning to an average
2.3 per cent annual growth rate for the remainder of the forecast horizon.
During the pandemic, the government provided support to Canadians through
the Canada Emergency Response Benet, Canada Recovery Benets and the
Canada Worker Lockdown Benet. These temporary programs are now closed,
with forecasted amounts in 2022-23 mainly reecting expected repayments of
benet overpayments.
CCB payments are projected to decrease 6.6 per cent to $24.5 billion in
2022-23, largely reecting the end of the COVID-19 temporary supplement
for families with young children. CCB payments are then expected to grow by
4.5 per cent in 2023-24 and 7.0 in 2024-25 due to consumer price ination, to
which benets are indexed, before returning to an average 3.1 per cent growth
over the remainder of the forecast.