ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Temporal factors in motor vehicle crash deaths
C M Farmer, A F Williams
...............................................................................................................................
See end of article for
authors’ affiliations
.......................
Correspondence to:
Charles M Farmer,
Insurance Institute for
Highway Safety, 1005
North Glebe Road,
Arlington, VA 22201–
4751, USA; cfarmer@
iihs.org
.......................
Injury Prevention 2005;11:18–23. doi: 10.1136/ip.2004.005439
Objective: To summarize fatal motor vehicle crash deaths in the United States by time of day, day of week,
month, and season, and to determine why some days of the year tend to experience a relatively high
number of deaths.
Method: Crash deaths were identified and categorized using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. Days
of the year with relatively high crash deaths were compared to the two days that occurred exactly one
week before and one week after.
Results: On average, motor vehicle crashes in the United States result in more than 100 deaths per day,
but there is much day-to-day variability. During 1986–2002 the single day fatality count ranged from a
low of 45 to a high of 252. Summer and fall months experience more crash deaths than winter and spring,
largely due to increased vehicle travel. July 4 (Independence Day) has more crash deaths on average than
any other day of the year, with a relatively high number of deaths involving alcohol. January 1 (New
Year’s Day) has more pedestrian crash deaths on average, plus it has the fifth largest number of deaths per
day overall, also due to alcohol impairment. On other days the high numbers of deaths are likely due to
increases in holiday or recreational travel.
Conclusion: Every day of the year results in many crash deaths, but certain days stand out as particularly
risky. The temporal and geographic spread of crash deaths, as well as the view of driving as a routine
task, inures the public to this continuing problem. Innovative strategies are needed both to raise awareness
and to work toward a solution.
M
otor vehicle crashes in the United States result in
more than 40 000 deaths per year. From 1975 to 2002
there were a total of 1 241 796 crash deaths, ranging
from a high of 51 093 in 1979 to a low of 39 250 in 1992.
1
On
average, more than 100 people are killed each day, but there
is a great deal of day-to-day variability. Weekend days tend to
result in more fatal crashes than midweek days, and summer
months experience more fatal crashes than winter months.
12
Fatal motor vehicle crashes are more prevalent during
holiday periods,
3–5
during which there is an increase in
recreational travel as people visit family and friends. Such
travel may involve long distances, unfamiliar roads, and high
speeds, all characteristics associated with increased crash
risk. Some recreational driving may involve alcohol. However,
this type of travel also may be concentrated on interstate
highways, which are by design much safer than other types
of roads.
This report chronicles the temporal patterns in motor
vehicle crash deaths during 1986–2002. In particular, the
days of the year that tended to have the highest fatality
counts are examined, as well as days with the lowest fatality
counts. This 17 year period was chosen specifically to balance
the effects of weekend travel. During this time period each
day of the week occurred exactly 887 times, and each day of
the year (except February 29) covered each day of the week at
least twice.
METHOD
Electronically coded descriptions of fatal crashes that
occurred during 1986–2002 were extracted from the United
States Department of Transportation’s Fatality Analysis
Reporting System (FARS). FARS is an annual census of
motor vehicle crashes occurring on public roads that result in
a fatality within 30 days. Information gathered includes date
and hour of the crash and characteristics of the vehicles and
people involved. For the study period all fatality records
contained information on the month of the crash, but 189
records did not have the exact date of the crash. Blood
alcohol concentration (BAC) is often reported for drivers and
pedestrians involved in fatal motor vehicle crashes. However,
during the period of this study, 29% of the fatally injured
drivers and 39% of the fatally injured pedestrians did not
have reported BACs. For cases in which BAC is not reported
the Department of Transportation uses a multiple imputation
procedure to obtain estimates, which are then included in
FARS.
6
Vehicle miles of travel on public roads, estimated
monthly, were obtained from the Federal Highway
Administration.
7
Motor vehicle crash deaths, categorized by month, day, and
hour of the crash, were averaged over the 17 year study
period. For some of the days with relatively high crash
deaths, deaths were categorized by role of the person killed,
age, BAC, and time of day. For comparison, the same
categorizations are given for the average of the two days that
occurred exactly one week before and one week after to
eliminate the confounding effects of season and day of the
week.
RESULTS
There were a total of 727 438 motor vehicle crash deaths in
the United States during 1986–2002. August averaged the
highest number of motor vehicle crash deaths per day (132)
during these 17 years (table 1). In fact, the six months with
the most fatalities (averaging 120 to 132 deaths per day) were
the summer and fall months, June through November.
January and February averaged the lowest number of deaths
per day (98); however, these two months also had the lowest
vehicle miles traveled per day. October and December
averaged the highest death rate per mile (19.1 deaths per
billion vehicle miles traveled), whereas March had the lowest
rate (16.4 deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled).
Abbreviations: BAC, blood alcohol concentration; FARS, Fatality
Analysis Reporting System
18
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Saturday by far averaged the highest number of crash
deaths per day (158) (fig 1). Friday had the second highest
number of deaths, averaging 133 deaths per day, followed by
Sunday at 132 deaths. Tuesday averaged the fewest number
of deaths (95).
Crash deaths were highest during afternoon and evening
hours (fig 2). The hours between 5 pm and 7 pm had the
most fatalities, each averaging 6.6 deaths per hour. The
12 hours with the greatest number of fatalities occurred
between 2 pm and 2 am. The 4 am hour had the fewest
fatalities, with an average of 2.6 deaths.
The 10 days of the year with the highest number of crash
fatalities totaled over the 17 year period are listed in table 2.
July 4 (Independence Day), although rarely experiencing the
greatest number of deaths in any particular year, averaged
the highest number of crash deaths (161). July 3, only one
day earlier, averaged the second highest number of deaths
(149). Six of the 10 days with the greatest number of deaths
occurred near major American holidays: July 2–4, December
23 (Christmas), January 1 (New Year’s Day), and September
2 (Labor Day). The remaining four days were in August,
which had a greater amount of vehicle travel than any other
month (table 1). Another 10 days of the year averaged
between 135 and 137 deaths per day, and all were during the
months of August, September, October, and December. The
single date with the highest number of deaths during 1986–
2002 was Saturday, August 9, 1986 (252 deaths).
The 10 days of the year with the fewest number of crash
fatalities averaged between 91 and 94 deaths per day. All
occurred in January and February, the months with the least
amount of vehicle travel. January 8, with the fewest average
number of deaths per day (91), follows exactly one week
after January 1, one of the days with the highest number of
deaths (table 2). The single date with the lowest number of
deaths during 1986–2002 was Monday, March 2, 1992 (45
deaths).
Motor vehicle crash deaths result from a variety of crash
types. The majority of deaths (about 75%) are to occupants of
passenger vehicles (cars, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles,
and passenger/cargo vans). Table 3 lists the 10 days of the
year with the most deaths to passenger vehicle occupants.
July 4 had the most passenger vehicle occupant deaths on
average (117), followed by December 23 (116) and January 1
(111).
Pedestrians account for about 13% of all crash deaths. The
days of the year with the most pedestrian deaths on average
were January 1 and October 31, each with about 24
pedestrian deaths per day (table 4). December 23 had the
next highest number of pedestrian deaths (22 per day). All of
the other days that averaged at least 20 pedestrian deaths
Table 1 Crash deaths by month of year, 1986–2002
Month VMT (in millions) Deaths
Deaths per billion
VMT
Average deaths per
day
January 2 996 148 51 694 17.3 98
February 2 860 326 47 247 16.5 98
March 3 32 7 688 54 645 16.4 104
April 3 327 528 55 710 16.7 109
May 3 534 141 62 426 17.7 118
June 3 525 655 64 152 18.2 126
July 3 657 624 68 099 18.6 129
August 3 676 891 69 731 19.0 132
September 3 365 709 63 965 19.0 125
October 3 476 625 66 553 19.1 126
November 3 237 169 61 145 18.9 120
December 3 257 765 62 071 19.1 118
VMT, vehicle miles traveled.
200
150
100
50
0
Average deaths per day
132
Sunday
98
Monday
95
Tuesday
98
Wednesday
105
Thursday
133
Friday
158
Saturday
Figure 1 Crash deaths by day of week, 1986–2002.
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Hour beginning
am
Average deaths per hour
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
pm
Figure 2 Crash deaths by hour of day, 1986–2002.
Table 2 Days of year with most crash deaths,
1986–2002
Date Deaths Average deaths per day
July 4 2743 161
July 3 2534 149
December 23 2470 145
August 3 2413 142
January 1 2411 142
August 6 2387 140
August 4 2365 139
August 12 2359 139
July 2 2340 138
September 2 2336 137
Note: Highest single day fatality count during this period was
252 on Saturday, August 9, 1986.
Temporal factors in motor vehicle crash deaths 19
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occurred during October, November, and December. The day
of the year that averaged the fewest pedestrian deaths was
March 12 (11 per day).
Motorcyclists account for about 7% of the total crash
deaths. Forty one percent of the motorcyclist deaths during
1986–2002 occurred during the summer months of June,
July, and August. The 10 days of the year with the most
motorcyclist deaths on average also were during the summer
(table 5). The day with the most motorcyclist deaths on
average was July 4 (18 per day). The day with the fewest
motorcyclist deaths on average was December 27 (two per
day).
Tables 6–9 summarize the results for some days with
relatively high crash deaths (July 4, December 23, January 1,
and August 6) as categorized by role of the person killed, age,
and BAC. Results are compared with those for the two days
occurring exactly one week before and one week after.
July 4 was the day of the year with the most deaths to both
passenger vehicle occupants and motorcyclists. It also had
more pedestrian deaths on average than either June 27 or
July 11 (table 6). As compared with June 27/July 11, July 4
had greater proportions of age groups younger than 30
among deaths to both passenger vehicle occupants (56% v
48%) and pedestrians (44% v 37%). For all three person
categories, July 4 had a greater proportion of deaths involving
high BACs than June 27/July 11 (41% v 31% overall).
December 23, the day with the second highest number of
passenger vehicle occupant deaths and the third highest
number of pedestrian deaths, did not exhibit different
patterns of passenger vehicle occupant deaths compared
with December 16 and 30 (table 7). Among pedestrians,
however, December 23 had greater proportions of deaths
involving high BACs (35% v 27%).
January 1 averaged the third highest number of passenger
vehicle occupant deaths and the most deaths among
pedestrians. New Year’s Day had more pedestrian deaths
than either December 25 or January 8 in each of the years
1986–2002. January 1 also had a much greater proportion of
deaths involving high BACs than December 25/January 8
(51% v 33% overall) (table 8). As might be expected, given the
increase in alcohol related deaths, January 1 also had more
deaths between midnight and 6 am than the comparison
days (48% v 20% overall).
August 6 is not close to any national holiday, but it was
among the days with the most deaths to both passenger
vehicle occupants (table 3) and motorcyclists (table 5). As
compared with the days one week before and after, August 6
was similar in the breakdown of deaths by age (table 9).
There were slight differences in the proportion of motorcyclist
deaths involving high BACs (40% v 35%). Overall, however,
August 6 was very similar to the comparison days.
DISCUSSION
Results of this study illustrate the large toll exacted by motor
vehicle crashes in the United States. However, not included
are the much more frequent non-fatal injuries, which average
more than 8000 per day, many of them severe.
1
It is not
surprising that there is substantial variation in numbers of
fatalities by day of week, time of day, and season, primarily
because driving exposure differs by these factors. One other
factor that affects the distribution of fatalities is alcohol
impairment, which is more frequent at night, on weekends,
and on certain days of the year. This helps explain why July 4
and January 1 were among the days with the most fatalities.
July 4 had on average at least 12 more crash deaths per day
than any other day of the year (table 2). Some of these
additional deaths may have been due to increased travel, but
a large part of it was likely due to alcohol impaired travel to
and from picnics, fireworks, and other recreational activities.
The proportion of deaths involving high BACs was much
higher on July 4 than on the comparison days one week
earlier and later.
December 23 was typical of other December days with
regard to who died and when they died. However, for
pedestrians at least there is some evidence of increased
alcohol impairment. Depending on the day of the week,
December 23 can be a high travel day or a day for
celebrations. So the reasons for the high number of crash
deaths on December 23 probably are a combination of
increased travel and alcohol impairment.
Almost half of the crash deaths on January 1 occurred
between midnight and 6 am, a period of light traffic on any
other day. Furthermore, half of the deaths involved alcohol
impairment. This percentage of high BAC deaths was
relatively high in each of the 17 years studied, ranging from
42% in 1995 (a Sunday) to 61% in 2000 (a Saturday). The
increased alcohol consumption due to New Year celebrations
especially affected pedestrians; 58% of the pedestrians dying
Table 3 Days of year with most passenger
vehicle occupant crash deaths, 1986–2002
Date Deaths Average deaths per day
July 4 1990 117
December 23 1975 116
January 1 1881 111
July 3 1873 110
December 24 1872 110
December 22 1776 104
August 3 1770 104
August 6 1755 103
August 4 1739 103
November 1 1733 102
Table 4 Days of year with most pedestrian
crash deaths, 1986–2002
Date Deaths Average deaths per day
January 1 410 24
October 31 401 24
December 23 373 22
December 20 357 21
November 2 351 21
October 26 350 21
November 3 348 20
November 10 344 20
November 1 340 20
December 18 339 20
Table 5 Days of year with most motorcyclist
crash deaths, 1986–2002
Date Deaths
Average deaths
per day
July 4 303 18
July 19 266 16
July 5 247 15
July 16 246 14
August 1 243 14
August 6 243 14
August 9 243 14
June 28 242 14
July 2 240 14
August 25 239 14
20 Farmer, Williams
www.injuryprevention.com
had a high BAC. This accounts for January 1 having more
pedestrian deaths than any other day of the year.
August 6, along with several other days in August, had
relatively high numbers of passenger vehicle occupant and
motorcyclist deaths. However, the pattern of deaths on
August 6 was similar to that of deaths that occurred one
week earlier or later. The increased number of deaths on
August 6 was therefore probably due to increased recrea-
tional travel.
Six of the 10 days with the highest number of crash deaths
occurred during holiday periods. Recognizing this trend,
police agencies sometimes initiate traffic enforcement cam-
paigns during holiday periods. Such campaigns, when well
publicized, have been shown to temporarily reduce crash
rates, especially those involving alcohol.
89
Safety organiza-
tions also warn of the dangers of holiday travel, but this
overlooks the reality that every day of the year results in
many motor vehicle deaths. That is, on each of the 6209
consecutive days included in this study, an equivalent of a
plane-load or more of people died on the roads.
There is not a large public outcry concerning this daily loss
of life. Motor vehicle crash deaths are ‘‘statistical’’ deaths
that, except for the occasional spectacular crash, do not
resonate with the public.
10
The highest number of people
killed in a motor vehicle crash during the study period was 27
on Saturday, May 14, 1988. This particular crash, in which a
driver with a measured BAC of 0.24% struck a busload of
children, sparking a catastrophic fire, received nationwide
attention. However, most deaths (94%) occurred in crashes in
which one or two people were killed, and these were
scattered throughout the country. Daily tallies of fatal crashes
in the United States are not available until many months
have passed.
Motor vehicle crashes and injuries are often acknowledged
to be a social problem, but part of the public indifference may
reflect the fact that almost everyone is a driver. Risk
perception research suggests that people create ‘‘illusory
zones of immunity’’ around routine, everyday activities that
are supposed to be under their control.
11
Related to this is the
belief held by most people that their driving skills are better
than those of others.
12
Thus although motor vehicle crashes
may be recognized as a social problem, it is one that may be
perceived as not particularly affecting them. Whatever the
case, there exists a kind of public apathy about motor vehicle
injuries, one result of which is that motor vehicle injury
prevention efforts are woefully underfunded compared with
other public health problems.
13
These influences, however, can be overcome. Sweden, for
example, adopted an approach called ‘‘Vision Zero’’ in 1997,
with the ultimate goal of no fatal or serious injuries on the
road. Included among Vision Zero principles are that the
objective of a transport system is to move people without
causing serious injury, there is no place for trade-offs
between fatalities and benefits such as faster travel, and
people have the responsibility to drive properly but should
not sustain injury if they do not.
14
Intervention components
of Vision Zero include traffic calming in congested areas,
reducing speeds to within the limits of vehicle crashworthi-
ness, and separating vehicle traffic on two lane roads with
cable barriers. Other countries have adopted similar strate-
gies. The Netherlands has begun a ‘‘Sustainable Safety’’
program, based on the principles of functional, homoge-
neous, and predictable use of the road network by all
parties.
15
In other words, roads must be designed so as to
promote cooperation among road users, and enforcement of
traffic rules should ensure that cooperation.
Table 6 Percentage of crash deaths by age and blood alcohol concentration (BAC), July
4 and comparison days, 1986–2002
Date
Age (years) BAC (%)*
0–29 30–54 55+ 0 0.01–0.07 0.08+
Passenger vehicle July 4 56 30 15 52 7 40
occupants June 27/July 11 48 30 23 63 6 31
Pedestrians July 4 44 37 18 53 4 43
June 27/July 11 37 34 28 61 4 35
Motorcyclists July 4 51 43 7 43 11 47
June 27/July 11 51 44 5 49 10 41
All deaths July 4 54 32 14 52 7 41
June 27/July 11 47 32 21 62 6 31
*BAC imputed for drivers and pedestrians; for passenger deaths, BAC of driver was used.
Table 7 Percentage of crash deaths by age and blood alcohol concentration (BAC),
December 23 and comparison days, 1986–2002
Date
Age (years) BAC (%)*
0–29 30–54 55+ 0 0.01–0.07 0.08+
Passenger vehicle December 23 42 34 24 63 5 32
occupants December 16/
December 30
43 32 25 63 5 32
Pedestrians December 23 21 39 39 60 5 35
December 16/
December 30
28 32 39 68 5 27
Motorcyclists December 23 63 34 3 56 5 39
December 16/
December 30
42 54 4 54 11 35
All deaths December 23 39 35 26 63 5 32
December 16/
December 30
41 33 26 64 5 31
*BAC imputed for drivers and pedestrians; for passenger deaths, BAC of driver was used.
Temporal factors in motor vehicle crash deaths 21
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The World Health Organization has recently focused
attention on motor vehicle injuries by devoting World
Health Day 2004 to road safety and publishing an extensive
report on road traffic injury prevention.
16
Among the
interventions recommended by the report are proposals for
increasing ‘‘the visibility of vehicles and vulnerable road
users’’. Visibility seems to be a particular problem for
pedestrians in the United States. The days of the year with
the most pedestrian deaths during 1986–2002 occurred
between late October and early January, precisely the season
with the least amount of daylight. Encouraging pedestrians
to wear colorful clothing and to use designated crosswalks
has little effect on adults, especially those with their
judgment impaired by alcohol. Instead, municipal govern-
ments should concentrate on increasing the illumination of
streets and sidewalks near restaurants, bars, shops, and other
areas catering to pedestrians.
The days of the year with the most motorcyclist
deaths during 1986–2002 were all during the summer,
when the weather is more accommodating of two wheeled
vehicles. Good weather can also encourage motorcyclists
(and other motor vehicle operators) to increase their speed.
Motorcyclist fatalities have been increasing in the United
States in recent years, with excessive speed cited as a major
factor.
17
Other factors include alcohol use, lack of proper
licensure, and failure to wear helmets. Thus the most
effective strategies for reducing motorcyclist deaths would
seem to be a strengthening of laws regarding speeding,
alcohol limits, licensure, and helmet use, along with
increased enforcement.
Passenger vehicle occupant deaths tend to increase during
periods of increased recreational travel. This type of travel
may involve alcohol use and excessive speed, so again
increased law enforcement is needed. Such travel, however,
could also involve rural roads, driver distractions, and
fatigue. As these factors increase the likelihood of driver
error, it is essential for all roadways to have well lit and easily
understood traffic signs. Driver error can never be completely
eliminated, so roadside hazards such as trees and utility poles
should be removed or cushioned. Finally, efforts to increase
both the crash avoidance capability and crashworthiness of
passenger vehicles should be continued.
Table 8 Percentage of crash deaths by age and blood alcohol concentration (BAC),
January 1 and comparison days, 1986–2002
Date
Age (years) BAC (%)*
0–29 30–54 55+ 0 0.01–0.07 0.08+
Passenger vehicle January 1 54 33 13 42 8 50
occupants December 25/
January 8
44 32 23 62 5 33
Pedestrians January 1 34 41 24 37 5 58
December 25/
January 8
24 38 36 57 5 38
Motorcyclists January 1 64 34 2 45 7 48
December 25/
January 8
54 41 5 53 6 42
All deaths January 1 51 35 14 42 7 51
December 25/
January 8
42 33 24 62 5 33
*BAC imputed for drivers and pedestrians; for passenger deaths, BAC of driver was used.
Table 9 Percentage of crash deaths by age and blood alcohol concentration (BAC),
August 6 and comparison days, 1986–2002
Date
Age (years) BAC (%)*
0–29 30–54 55+ 0 0.01–0.07 0.08+
Passenger vehicle August 6 47 30 23 60 6 34
occupants July 30/August 13 47 31 22 60 6 34
Pedestrians August 6 40 31 28 62 4 35
July 30/August 13 37 35 27 60 6 35
Motorcyclists August 6 51 44 5 52 8 40
July 30/August 13 54 40 5 53 12 35
All deaths August 6 47 32 21 60 6 34
July 30/August 13 47 33 20 60 6 33
*BAC imputed for drivers and pedestrians; for passenger deaths, BAC of driver was used.
Key points
N
During the years 1986–2002 there were on average
117 deaths per day in motor vehicle crashes in the
United States.
N
There was a great deal of day-to-day variability in
motor vehicle crash deaths, ranging from a low of 45
to a high of 252.
N
Certain seasons (summer, fall), days of the week
(Saturday, Friday, Sunday), and times of day (after-
noon, evening) had high concentrations of crash
deaths.
N
July 4 had on average at least 12 more crash deaths
than any other day of the year, and many of these
involved alcohol.
N
January 1 had more pedestrian crash deaths than any
other day of the year, and more than half of these
involved alcohol.
22 Farmer, Williams
www.injuryprevention.com
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This work was supported by the Insurance Institute for Highway
Safety. The authors thank Anastasios Markitsis for his assistance
with the data processing.
Authors’ affiliations
.....................
C M Farmer, A F Williams, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety,
Arlington, Virginia, USA
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LACUNAE ...........................................................................................................
Clothing related burn injuries to children
T
he first full year of data from the US CPSC National Burn Center Reporting System,
published in October, showed that gasoline and other flammable liquids are frequently
involved in clothing related burns to children. In a new report, CPSC staff reviewed 209
children’s clothing burn injury reports received from March 2003 through June 2004 and
found that more than one half involved gasoline or other flammable liquids. Developed in
cooperation with the American Burn Association and Shriners Hospitals for Children, the
CPSC’s National Burn Center Reporting System collects comprehensive reports on clothing
related burns to children under age 15 from the 105 burn centers that treat children. These
incidents involve the ignition, melting, or smouldering of clothing worn by children. To
support this effort, the National Association of State Fire Marshals works cooperatively with
CPSC to retrieve and preserve children’s clothing involved in burn injuries—an action that
greatly enhances the investigative process. Garments collected by fire officials are forwarded
to CPSC headquarters for inspection. At the suggestion of the NASFM, a committee
consisting of the National Volunteer Fire Council, National Fire Protection Association, the
International Association of Fire Chiefs, and NASFM developed a protocol for use by ‘‘first
responders’’ across the country. For each incident reported, the burn center provides CPSC
with preliminary information on the incident. A CPSC investigator is assigned to the case to
conduct an in-depth investigation, interviewing the victim when possible, as well as parents,
fire officials, and medical personnel. All reports are reviewed and maintained in CPSC’s
epidemiological databases. The report, which can be downloaded from http://www.cpsc.gov/
cpscpub/prerel/prhtml05/05028.pdf, highlights that of the 213 victims, 179 were injured
while wearing daywear. No incidents appear to have involved tight fitting children’s
sleepwear or infant garments sized 9 months or smaller. The most frequent ignition source
was an outdoor fire, involved in 62 of the 209 incidents, followed by lighters in 37 of the
incidents. More than one half (107) of the 209 incidents involved flammable liquids. Boys,
ages 10 to 14, comprised most of the victims. Many of these incidents were also associated
with outdoor fires. Gasoline was the most frequently reported flammable liquid involved in
these incidents.
Temporal factors in motor vehicle crash deaths 23
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